As we alluded to back at the beginning of the year, the college football landscape is not much different than the stock market. The key principle is simple: buy low, sell high. That will scare much of the public off. After all, who wants to bet on a team that most see as slumping or just plain shitty? But the entire goal in gambling is to avoid becoming part of the public, because the public never wins. Have you seen the casinos in Vegas? Do you think they were built off grant money and government funds?

Of course not. The gambling business is supported by its consumers. And the consumers, by and large, are idiots. Sure, a few huge publicly-backed teams may win every week. But Vegas does not make money if they all win, or even if 60 percent of them win. So, with that said, let’s take a look at the college football market and determine which teams have inflated value and which are underrated and headed for a breakout.

OVER-INFLATED

Georgia Tech – An easy #1 pick. This team barely plays defense, turns the ball over like crazy, does not value or care about field position, and leaves points on the board constantly. GT was a huge moneymaker early, but provided the most painful moose in the last 3-5 years by simply not kneeling up 17 with less than a minute to go against NC State. Then the Jackets scored early and went on autopilot against Maryland, barely pulling out the win. Georgia Tech may very well cover against Virginia this Saturday…but after that? It’s just not a very good bet that the Yellowjackets can continue scoring 50 points a game in a conference that knows the option attack inside and out. Be wary.

Clemson – Another ACC squad that has shocked everyone. But look closely at the teams Clemson beat earlier in the season. Florida State – Uh, this team will struggle to win 8 games. Auburn – The luckiest damn team in the country with VERY little talent to speak of. Virginia Tech – Hokies came out flat and frankly don’t have many weapons outside of David Wilson. Defense could not stop Miami. This team was HORRENDOUSLY overrated in the preseason. Maryland has also, predictably, disappointed with Randy Edsall. But with a banged up Tajh Boyd, taking Clemson to cover eight points on the road is asking for trouble.

Oregon – Yes, the Ducks beat everyone by 30-40 at home. But with the absence of a running game from QB Darron Thomas, how can you expect UO to not miss a beat without LaMichael James? He leads the nation in rushing for a reason. Kenjon Barner is good, but so is ASU’s defense. I grabbed this line early at 16.5, and it has shrunk to 14 since Monday. Still think that’s too many points, even in Eugene.

Rutgers – It’s time to get off the Scarlet Knight train. They’ve gotten two victories nobody expected them to get in the past two weeks, but it’s time for reality to set in. The reality is that Rutgers is an absolutely horrendous single-digit favorite. The trends are really astonishing. Navy just gave up a billion points to Southern Miss, which is surely fresh in many people’s minds. But USM is about 982358329 times better offensively than RU. It’s painful to watch Rutgers try to run the ball. Please only attempt to do so with adult supervision.

Utah State – Few things excite me more than watching Utah State’s offense in motion. The Aggies anally violated Wyoming last week, so they’re naturally a favorite on the road at a Fresno State team that looked totally defeated against Boise. But I think it’s incredibly foolish to bet on USU as a road favorite at this point. If the Aggies have proven anything, they have shown they can give a game away better than anyone else in America. Will gladly take the field goal cushion in backing the Bulldogs this week.

UNDERRATED

Central Florida – I’m seeing upwards of 80 percent of bets being placed on SMU. Really? Central Florida was in a pretty clear lookahead situation last week against Marshall and looked terrible. Meanwhile, the Mustangs’ huge win over TCU is still fresh in people’s minds. UCF is now being offered at 3.5. Jump on it while you can, because if the Stangs win, it very likely won’t be by more than a field goal. This is the best secondary SMU will see all year.

Idaho – I don’t know how any team is an underdog to New Mexico State. I do know Idaho has looked terrible for the entire season. But this is prime letdown territory for NMSU, who just beat rival New Mexico last week. I wouldn’t bet on the Aggies as a favorite against an FCS team, and I certainly wouldn’t do it against a WAC foe after coming off such an emotional win.

Pittsburgh – A pair of bad Big East losses has most people wishing ill upon the Panthers. I don’t really buy it. Yes, Pitt needs a quarterback in the WORST WAY. However, Utah’s QB situation is actually worse. No, I’m not exaggerating. It’s true. This will probably be an ugly contest, but with the line under a touchdown, Pitt has some pretty clear value.

Now, onto the card:

4*

Navy +4 at Rutgers – So many trends in favor of the Midshipmen, who actually lead the country in rushing. Rutgers has a formidable defense, but it won’t see anything like Navy’s option game this year. Prime letdown spot for RU after a great win over Pitt last week. Might sprinkle some on the moneyline (+160) as well.

UCF +3.5 at SMU – Probably could’ve guessed this would be high on the card. Both teams are going to struggle to score. But this is a huge game for UCF, and SMU has historically struggled to cover in GJF Stadium. Will take my chances on the Knights and their running game.

Arizona State +16.5 at Oregon – Barner may go nuts, but I think this line is just off. ASU can finally play offense this year, and they don’t always have to pass either….not a great running team, but still better than terrible. Oregon has played two teams with a defense this year, and Darron Thomas didn’t look good against either of them. Can I interest anyone in a very juicy ML play?

Virginia +7 (+100) vs Georgia Tech – UVA’s had two weeks to steam over that pathetic performance against Idaho AND prepare for the option. Georgia Tech has really been wearing down over the past two weeks. Stephen Hill’s hands have turned back into cement blocks. I don’t think this looks good for GT.

3*

Fresno State +3.5 vs Utah State – As explained earlier, just can’t bet the Aggies as a road favorite. Also, they historically have 2-3 games a season where they totally poop themselves. I’m betting this is one of them, especially after coming off such a dominating win. Young teams don’t handle success very well.

Texas Tech -3.5 vs Kansas State – Think the Wildcats finally get beat by a team with a good quarterback. I have backed Tech a lot this year (2-1 betting on them), and I feel like Neal Brown can whip up something to finally break through Bill Snyder’s defense. Very worried about Tech’s ability to stop KSU’s one-play offense, but in the end I just feel TTU scores too many points.

Baylor +8.5 at Texas A&M – I’ve heard damn near everything about this game to make me stay off Baylor. None of their fans are coming. TAMU wants revenge. Griffin might be nicked up. Sorry, not buying any of it. The Aggies still haven’t figured out how to play defense, and if not for a blocked field goal return for a TD, we might be talking about a three-loss team. Do you realize Texas A&M has forced THREE turnovers all season?!?!?!? THREE!!! You have to try to be that incompetent. Think BU takes a big step forward here.

Tulane -1.5 vs UTEP – At home in the Superdome and playing a team I think is terrible, I’ll take Tulane to win. The line crossed the zero, which is usually a pretty good indicator that the newly-favored team will win the game. Tulane absolutely NEEDS to win this game to have any shot at going bowling. A loss means Bob Toledo is probably gone. Too much at stake here for the Green Wave to lose in my opinion.

2*

Northwestern +6 at Iowa – This is just asking for trouble, especially going against a team I backed last week. But Iowa isn’t very good, and I think NW is a better team. They should win this game as long as they get off the bus…and play all four quarters, unlike last week.

Michigan +1.5 at Michigan State – MSU’s offense is really terrible without Treadwell. Maybe seeing the Michigan defense will be a cure, who knows. But I think the Wolverines will pull another W out of their asses before they start to come back to earth a bit into November.

Wake Forest +7 vs Virginia Tech – I may have missed the boat already on WF. I really hope I haven’t. VT simply isn’t that great a team. I think the Deacons will be able to move the ball…they just have to put it in the end zone. Red zone efficiency is absolutely crucial here.

1*

Iowa State +16 at Missouri – Tigers have got to show me they can consistently move the ball. Not sure they can do it yet. ISU isn’t very good defensively, but they are capable of forcing turnovers. Very small bet on a team I like. Don’t screw me Steele.

Oklahoma State -7 at Texas – Hate to be on a road favorite in such an obvious public trap, but I can’t help it. Don’t think UT will be able to even slow down OSU’s offense. The RRR seemed like a soul-crusher for the Horns, and you know Gundy’s team will be wary of any comebacks by UT since they’ve been burned by them in the past.

South Carolina -3 at Mississippi State – I think the Garcia fiasco has finally been put behind them, and the Cocks will play pissed off for a few weeks. Others might see it as a distraction, but I see it as a unifying point, especially when Connor Shaw proved he could move the ball. Yeah it was Kentucky, but even though MSU’s defense is significantly better, I see the Bulldog offense turning the ball over multiple times. Melvin Ingram for Heisman.

Louisville +14 at Cincinnati – Louisville ain’t NC State, and believe it or not, Cincy does not like to sling the ball around like in the Brian Kelly era. This is a run-first team now, and UL excels at defending the run. I expect a street fight that will be decided by a touchdown either way. I also expect it to be a hideous game to watch, which is why I’m keeping this to a small bet.

Oklahoma blows out rival Texas

#1/#3 Oklahoma looked dominant on both sides of the ball in an impressive 55-17 throttling of rival (and former #11) Texas. The Sooners defense forced five Longhorn turnovers while junior quarterback Landry Jones led the Oklahoma offense with 367 yards passing yards with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Texas was able to hang around for a quarter or so before Oklahoma put the game out of reach. Oklahoma kicked two short field goals and Texas added one of their own leading to a 6-3 Oklahoma lead after one. The Longhorns didn’t keep Oklahoma out of the end zone for very long. Jones threw two touchdowns passes early in the second quarter while the defense returned an interception 55 yards for a touchdown with less than 3 minutes remaining in the half to increase the lead to 27-3.

The interception return was the ultimate dagger as Texas saw its deficit jump from a daunting 17 points to an impossible 24. Oklahoma continued to roll in the second half, getting two fumble returns for touchdowns and a 64-yard touchdown run from junior running back Dominique Whaley. This week, Oklahoma travels to Lawrence to face Kansas (one of the worst teams in the country) while Texas hosts #6 Oklahoma State.

LSU rolls over Florida

#1/#2 LSU defeated #17 Florida 41-11 Saturday to continue an impressive steak of defeating top 25 teams. The Tigers have now defeated four top 25 teams this season by an average margin of 20.5 points. That’s an impressive stat no matter how you slice it.

LSU has shown they are on an elite level in every facet of the game and there’s only a few teams who can give these guys a run for their money on the football field. LSU is a smart, well-coached team that always seems to make the right play. The gameplan is built around their smothering defense that has a knack for creating turnovers. What really sets LSU apart from the other elite teams in the country is special teams. The ability to pin opponents inside the 20 is a lost art but LSU is one of the best I’ve seen this season. I guess you can do this when your special teams players are better athletes than most teams starters.

Their first test of the season will come in the much anticipated roadtrip to Tuscaloosa to face fellow SEC West foe Alabama on November 5th. The other test will come in their annual end-of-the-year game against #10 Arkansas. The Hogs have the type of offense that I could see giving this vaunted LSU defense some fits.

Touchdowns/Field Goals/Turnovers

TD’s/FG’s/TO is a weekly column feature where I feature the great (TD’s), the good (FG’s) and the bad (TO’s) of the previous week.

Touchdowns

• Virginia Tech defeated Miami 38-35 in the best game of the weekend. The Hokies twice held leads of 14 (14-0, 21-7) and 10 (24-14, 31-21) but the Hurricanes kept chipping away. Miami finally took the lead on a 30-yard Lamar Miller run with 2:51 remaining. Virginia Tech quarterback Logan Thomas led the offense down the field, finishing the drive off with a 19-yard touchdown run to give the Hokies the lead for good with 56 seconds left.
• Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson looked impressive once again for Arkansas in their 38-14 victory over rival Auburn. At one point, Wilson completed 18 passes in a row before throwing three straight incomplete passes. The record for most completed passes in a row is 23 shared by former Tennessee (& current Kentucky Wildcats wide receiver coach) quarterback Tee Martin and former Cal (& current Green Bay Packers quarterback) Aaron Rodgers.
• Surprise teams Kansas State (5-0), Clemson (6-0), Illinois (6-0), Michigan (6-0) and Georgia Tech (6-0) all continued their impressive undefeated seasons with victories on Saturday. Kansas State defeated Missouri 24-17; this week they travel to Lubbock to face Texas Tech (4-1). Clemson defeated Boston College 36-14; this week they travel to College Park to play Maryland (2-3).  Illinois defeated Indiana 41-20; this week they host Ohio State. Michigan defeated Northwestern 42-24; this week they travel to East Lansing to play rival #23 Michigan State. Georgia Tech defeated Maryland 21-16; this week they go on the road to battle Virginia.

Field Goals

• South Carolina sophomore quarterback Connor Shaw looked sharp in the Gamecocks 54-3 victory over Kentucky. Shaw completed 26/39 passes for 311 yards while throwing 4 TD’s and 0 interceptions. Shaw was practically playing pitch and catch with his wideouts as Kentucky showed the inability to create any pass rush with their front four or cover with their back 4. We’ll see what Shaw can do against teams with a pulse but it’s a good sign and an obvious improvement over Stephen Garcia. Shaw’s performance on Saturday was able to elevate South Carolina to 85th in the nation in passing, up from 103rd the week before.
• Wake Forest improved to 4-1 after their 35-30 victory over Florida State. The Demon Deacons are now 3-0 in the ACC and host #19 Virginia Tech this week in a pivotal game in the ACC. Unfortunately, the television schedule was set before Wake’s upset over Florida State and there’s no television coverage this week. Luckily for me, my internet provider offers ESPN3 where the game can be seen at 6:30 PM/ET.

Turnovers

• As a college football junkie, I find myself watching multiple games at once. Sometimes you can lose track of a game or two and you’ll be forced to backtrack to figure out what the hell just happened. You can imagine my dismay when I look up from watching Arkansas/Auburn game to see Georgia facing a 3rd and 57. Georgia wasn’t able to get a yard and was forced to punt on 4th and 57. I can honestly say this is the first time I can remember seeing  a punt returner line up in front of the yellow first-down line.
• Maryland had some bad quarterback play in their aforementioned loss to Georgia Tech. Starter Danny O’Brien finished 1/6 for a whopping 17 yards while throwing an interception. Backup C.J. Brown was able to get something going late, finishing 4/17 for 36 yards and an interception. Brown started 0/7 and Maryland went into the 4th quarter with 1 completion by a quarterback. Senior wide receiver Tony Logan completed the only other pass on a trick play that went for 34 yards. This week, Maryland will have to have much better quarterback play to upset #8 Clemson.
• With the season reaching it’s midway point, injuries are starting to pile up across the country. Some are season-enders (Florida State running back Chris Thompson, B.C. running back Montel Harris, Utah quarterback Jordan Wynn), some are a few games (Oregon running back LaMichael James, Florida quarterback John Brantley, Georgia wide receiver Malcolm Mitchell) while others are just scares (Tajh Boyd, probable vs. Maryland).

Looking Ahead

#20 Baylor @ #21 Texas A&M – 12:00 PM – FX

#11 Michigan @ #23 Michigan State – 12:00 PM – ABC

Indiana @ #4 Wisconson – 12:00 PM – ESPN2

Utah @ Pittsburgh – 12:00 PM – ESPNU

Purdue @ Penn State – 12:00 PM – BTN

#15 South Carolina @ Mississippi State – 12:00 PM- SEC Network

Miami (FL) @ North Carolina – 12:30PM – ACC Network

Florida State @ Duke – 3:00 PM – FSN

#1 LSU @ Tennessee – 3:30 PM – CBS

#6 Oklahoma State @ #22 Texas – 3:30 PM – ABC/ESPN

Ohio State @ #16 Illinois – 3:30 PM – ABC/ESPN

UCF @ SMU – 3:30 PM – FSN

#12 Georgia Tech @ Virginia – 3:30 PM – ESPNU

#2 Alabama @ Ole Miss – 6:00 PM – ESPN2

Florida @ #24 Auburn– 7:00 PM – ESPN

#8 Clemson @ Maryland – 7:00 PM – ESPNU

#17 Kansas State @ Texas Tech – 7:00 PM – FSN

Northwestern @ Iowa – 7:00 PM – BTN

Georgia @ Vanderbilt – 7:00 PM – FSN

#7 Stanford @ Washington State – 7:30 PM – VS

#3 Oklahoma @ Kansas – 9:15 PM – ESPN2

#18 Arizona State @ #9 Oregon – 10:15 PM – ESPN

The Extra Point

North Carolina’s Dwight Jones is slowly becoming one of the best wide receivers in the ACC. Jones has quietly been improving each season and he made a remarkable in Saturday’s slugfest with Louisville. On this pass, Jones adjusts to a badly underthrown pass from Bryn Renner and beasts his way into the endzone. Enjoy.

Sorry for the lack of a column. Surprisingly, this whole ‘writing for free’ thing doesn’t pay the bills. I will be back next week in full force, but for now here’s the card.

4*

Bowling Green +10 (-105) – Western Michigan is coming off a straight-up win over a BCS team on the road. That means the Broncos have lost all of their value. Bowling Green got dismantled and destroyed by West Virginia. Should be as good a time as ever to back a team that can move the ball. WMU has crushed BG in each of the past two matchups…further baiting the public into backing the Broncos.

West Virginia -20 - Revenge spot for the Mountaineers, and UConn is just plain bad. Mountaineers appear to have the offense on track and the defense will always be solid under Casteel.

Northwestern +7.5 – Wolverines’ first road contest of the season, and Northwestern is tougher than you think. I will take a solid team getting more than a touchdown against a team that, frankly, we don’t know much about.

3*

Rutgers +7 – Rutgers is one of the few teams in the Big East that can match up with Pitt at the line of scrimmage defensively. If Pitt can’t run, it will have serious trouble moving the ball. Like the home underdog in this one.

Tennessee +3 – Vols are a much different team at home, and I’m not sold on Georgia at all. UT’s receiving corps lost a huge weapon in Justin Hunter, but there are still plenty of options for Tyler Bray.

Baylor -15 - This is just a terrible spot for Iowa State. The Cyclones are turnover-happy and going on the road to face a pissed-off Baylor team coming off a bad loss. ISU’s defense hasn’t seen an attack close to the caliber of Baylor’s. I think the Clones will go through a bloodbath last week before rebounding against Mizzou with a (hopefully) huge line.

2*

Miami, OH +2 – Fading Army as a road favorite again. Worked out very well with Ball State. Miami knows this is probably its best chance at a victory for the foreseeable future.

Southern Miss +1 – I said USM would go undefeated in the regular season, and although that won’t come to fruition now, the Eagles are a good team. Navy coming off an emotional rivalry game, may have trouble getting started.

Auburn +10 - Arkansas coming off a huge comeback victory against a rival and is now a double-digit favorite at home against Auburn. Aubie’s defense is awful, but Arky’s run defense might actually be worse. Touchdown fest that should keep the Tigers within the number.

1*

Texas Tech +9 - A&M couldn’t stop Arkansas last week. Now they have to play a Red Raider team at home that loves to pass the ball? Sharp money coming in on the Aggies, but at this point their confidence level has to be a concern. Huge rivalry game and I’m sure Texas Tech wants to get their best shot in before TAMU heads to the SEC.

Iowa +4.5 – Not completely confident in this one, but I think Iowa has enough offense to pull away and win this one outright. Don’t trust either PSU quarterback.

Mixing it up a little bit this week. I’m doing the mailbag, which is absolutely bulging with questions.

Travis asks: “What do you think of CSU’s schedule through the first 5 weeks? Bad FBS schedule or worst FBS schedule ever? For those keeping score at home, by the end of the first 5 they’ll have played one of the worst BCS teams (CU) Two of the worst teams to ever field a D1 team (New Mexico and San Jose State) and another lower tier team in Utah State (who admittedly looked good against Auburn). I know the San Jose State jab borders on heresy, but I think it is time that we acknowledge the former champs have fallen a hundred or so notches. If CSU manages to beat mighty San Jose State this weekend, I vote that they will be the worst 4-1 team in the history of football. Thoughts?”

CSU’s schedule is pretty atrocious. New Mexico is probably the worst team in Division 1 football, and San Jose State is certainly up there, too. Utah State might just be the best team on their schedule; CU is in pieces right now and might not win a game the rest of the season (imagine the epic cripple fight between CU and Oregon State; unfortunately, the Pac-12 deprived us of that matchup this year). CSU did not beat San Jose State, which not a good sign. Also, they only beat Utah State by 1 and New Mexico by 4. Not good. And, uh, looking at the rest of the schedule, they only game they will be favored in is against UNLV (and maybe Wyoming). I could see them being 4-8, or even not winning a game (the UNLV game is on the road) the rest of the season. Their record is definitely deceiving right now. Phil Steele picked them fourth in the Mountain West. I suppose that’s possible, but I don’t see that happening given their results so far.

fisherjr33 asks: “Is there a team who under performs more than the Buckeyes on offense? I submit to you their total offense rankings the past five seasons. Yardage is through the MSU game, ranking will be going lower.

2011- 92 *Last in the B1G* (308.2 YPG) *
2010- 20 *Second in the B1G* (448.6 YPG)
2009- 67 *Eighth in the B1G*(369.0 YPG)
2008- 76 *Ninth in the B1G*(342.7 YPG)
2007- 62 *Ninth in the B1G*(393.7 YPG)”

Well, Michigan’s defense in the past 3 years might come close to underachieving as much as OSU’s offense. The improvement of their defense this year speaks volumes to how much they underachieved the past two years. Looking at the recruiting rankings for the starters on OSU’s offense points in this direction, too. I don’t remember where I read it, but someone said that Jim Bollman is the Greg Robinson of offensive coordinators. While I don’t have access to their final rankings, Georgia Tech and Florida State in the middle part of this decade were underachievers on offense, probably close to that type of ineptitude. Your point is extremely valid, though. OSU fans should pray that Bollman is not retained by whomever ends up taking over at Ohio State. The display against MSU was atrocious, especially considering that MSU’s defensive line looked like world beaters. Before the OSU game, MSU was ranked 87th in sacks and 67th in tackles for loss. After the OSU game, MSU is ranked 19th and 25th, respectively. The offensive line is supposed to be the (only) strength of OSU. Even when (or if) Posey and Herron get back, those numbers demonstrate how terrible OSU’s offense is right now. And this leads perfectly onto the next question (I know I’m going out of order here; don’t worry, Some Habib)

DeadMan asks: “Will Ohio State make a bowl?”

What an intelligent and well thought-out question! Anyone who looks at Ohio State’s schedule and thinks that they are a stone-cold lock to make a bowl should schedule a neurological exam. Let’s take a look:

• @ Nebraska – loss
• @ Illinois – loss
• Wisconsin – definite loss
• Indiana – definite win
• @ Purdue – probable win
• Penn State – toss up
• @ Michigan – probable loss

The only games that you can have in the win column right now are Indiana and Purdue. The question is whether they can pull out one or two of the other games. Penn State is similarly atrocious this year, and that game is a toss up. I’m going to say that OSU goes 6-6 or 7-5 and makes a bowl. I don’t know if the offense will improve, but the defense might be able to steal a game for them. The defense should be able to keep them in most of those games, and when it’s close, you never know what can happen. If OSU loses the next 3 games, you will have to wonder about their psyche, especially if they struggle against Indiana. It is within the realm of possibility that OSU doesn’t make a bowl this year. How many times in the past thirty years have you been able to say that? Things might even end up getting worse, depending on the penalties handed down by the NCAA and the length of the appeals process, as OSU is getting crushed in recruiting in Ohio by Michigan. Few people will want to go there until this mess is sorted out.

Some Habib asks: “Y can’t Daddy finish games? Is Sherman’s seat warming at all?”

Sherman’s seat is definitely warming. This website explains it best. But two come from ahead losses where aDm completely collapsed in the second half do not bode well for Sherman’s future. Until last year, he was definitely on the hot seat. If Daddy doesn’t finish with at least 9 wins, Sherman might be gone. At the very least, Sherman has guaranteed himself an offseason of cleaning house in the assistant coaching ranks, which is basically the first step on the path to a coach’s doom.

Why Daddy can’t finish games is a tougher question. Against Arkansas, is was clearly poor coaching; specifically, multiple times where Sherman punted when he shouldn’t have. Twice, Sherman punted on 4th and short situations in Arkansas territory when the running game hadn’t been stopped the entire game. The punts netted an average of 26.5 yards. Why Would You Punt From There? Terrible decisions. And then, again, Sherman kicks a field goal to go up by 3 on a 4th and 2 from the 6. Here’s a chart which indicates the mathematically correct decision in these situations:

Sherman was 0 for 3. In the Oklahoma State game, aDm abandoned the run completely, leading to Tannehill turning the ball over 3 times. I know it’s easy to point the finger at the coaches, but this is simple. aDm has two of the best backs in the Big XII-II, so when you are ahead, pound the rock. And make the smart decisions when facing a 4th down situation. One of those 3 I can forgive, but punting on 4th and 2 from your opponent’s 39 is a great way to have a 19 yard gain, which any coach will tell you is just dumb in that situation, and it’s exponentially dumber with the sieve-like nature of Daddy’s second half defense.

Some Habib asks: “Is Texas being overrated? A lot of teams ahead of Texas, and Arkansas, lost yesterday. Should Texas have that #10 ranking, or is Arky more deserving? Or do you have someone else in mind that should be placed above both of them? (This, is in the USA Today poll)”

This question really has two parts to it. (1) Is Texas overrated right now, and (2) will Texas finish in the top ten? I think Texas is overrated right now, simply because they haven’t beaten any quality teams. They have benched Gilbert, but a QB change does not make a team great most of the time. The freshman savior at running back, Malcolm Brown, has been okay, but not great. I think Texas will lose the next two games and drop down to the mid 20s where they are a better fit right now.

However, I think Texas has a legitimate shot at a 10 win season and perhaps a top 15 ranking. After Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, the schedule isn’t so rough. They get Texas Tech and Kansas State at home, and  playing at Baylor is probably going to be a home game for Texas. Road trips to Missouri and Daddy might be tough, but Daddy is in a downward spiral and I haven’t been too impressed with Missouri (and Gary Pinkel is still their coach; he’s probably good for another loss this season). Texas’ defense is much improved and it should keep Texas in most of the games. I’m a big fan of Manny Diaz; he did a tremendous job at Mississippi State. I think Texas has a legitimate shot at 10 wins, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they beat Oklahoma State. I doubt they’ll finish in the top ten, but it’s possible.

As far as teams to replace Texas in the top ten, I would probably go with Arkansas, Georgia Tech, and maybe West Virginia.

Rutgers Mike asks: “Will Rutgers still have a seat at the adult table, or will they have to go sit with the 5 year olds?”

Rutgers will somehow end up with an invite to a BCS conference. They have the potential to unlock the New York TV market, and everybody realizes that conference expansion is driven by money. The Big XII-II has already indicated they want a team outside of Texas, and the only possible reason for that is to increase the TV market. I think somebody will end up snapping up Rutgers before the carousel stops turning. Which conference? I haven’t the faintest idea, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Big Ten or ACC grabbed Rutgers. I just can’t believe that some conference wouldn’t take a punt on Rutgers to get at the NY market.

Irishman asks: “Is Minnesota the worst team in a BCS conference, or is it Purdue, Louisville, or BC?”

Ah, yes, a question right up my alley. Right now, Minnesota is the worst team in a BCS conference. There is just too much going on with that program right now to make them into a good team. Without Gray, their offense is completely impotent, too. Purdue is the third-worst team in the Big Ten (Indiana checks in below them). BC has talent, but can’t put it together. Louisville has at least beaten a Division 1 team. Other candidates: Oregon State and UConn.

Reel E. Weird asks: “Which nfl team will RG3 play WR for?”

The Cowboys will draft him to replace Tony Romo. You heard it here first.

Ander 1345 asks: “Do you predict another 3 point win for the Illini? That would make 4 games in a row.”

Uh, they play Indiana. No. Illinois should win by 20+. If they don’t, that will just add more evidence to my gut feeling that this Illinois team is waiting to get Zooked and implode.

Wisconsin makes a statement

What started as a celebration of Nebraska’s opening act of Big Ten play ended in an embarrassing, tone-setting 48-17 Husker defeat at the hands of now conference rival Wisconsin. The Badgers (5-0) showed great offensive balance as they gracefully combine a power rushing attack behind a great offensive line and running back Montee Ball (30 rushes, 151 yards 4 TD) and an effective passing attack behind North Carolina State transfer Russell Wilson. On Saturday, Wilson finished 14/20 for 255 yards and 2 touchdowns while also showing the ability to make plays with his legs as he continues his impressive start (1391 yards, 13/1 TD:INT ratio) as the Badgers starting quarterback.

Wisconsin’s defense was able to force three Taylor Martinez interceptions, which helped to give the Badgers a 10 minute advantage in time of possession. With a down Big 10 schedule ahead of them, Wisconsin is looking more and more primed to be in the talk for the BCS National Championship game at the end of the season. Next week, Wisconsin hosts Indiana (1-4) before heading out on the road for Big Ten contests against Michigan State and Ohio State.

BCS Projections

Your guess is as good as mine at who will be playing what bowl game come January. However, what we can do is start to look at who would be playing where now. I don’t see Oklahoma going undefeated so I have them in the Fiesta as opposed to the BCS National Championship Game.

BCS National Championship: Alabama vs. Stanford
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Pitt/West Virginia/USF (pick one)
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Oklahoma State
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

Touchdowns/Field Goals/Turnovers

TD’s/FG’s/TO is a weekly column feature where I feature the great (TD’s), the good (FG’s) and the bad (TO’s) of the previous week.

Touchdowns

• On a day when the Clemson offense wasn’t as dynamic as past weeks, a couple of Senior glue players stood out for the Tigers in their dominating 23-3 victory over Virginia Tech. Defensive end Andre Branch (Richmond, VA native) was all over the field, totaling a career-high 11 tackles, a career-high 3 sacks and a career-high 5 tackles for loss in front of many friends and family members. Tight end Dwayne Allen had 4 catches for 75 yards, including a 32 yard touchdown on the Tigers first possession of the second half to give the Tigers the breathing room they needed. Any lead would have been safe with the way Branch was coming after the Hokies.
• Arkansas had a strong connection between quarterback Tyler Wilson (30/51 510 yards 3TD) and wide receiver Jarius Wright (13 receptions for 281 yards 1 TD) as both players broke Razorback school records in yardage in a game. Arkansas benefited from blown assignments and overall weak defensive back play from the Aggies, who displayed the inability to stop the pass for the second week in a row.
• Alabama played their most impressive game of the season in their 38-10 dismantling of the Florida Gators. Coming into the game I thought Florida had a good chance to keep it close. I thought Crimson Tide quarterback A.J. McCarron was sure to make a few mistakes playing in The Swamp. I thought the Alabama defense would feel the loss of linebacker Dont’a Hightower. Wrong, wrong, and wrong. Alabama is the best team in the country and their battle with LSU will be one for the ages.

Field Goals

• South Carolina defensive end Melvin Ingram continues to make plays all over the field for the Gamecock defense. Ingram finished 11 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and an interception on a horrible Auburn fake field goal. Unfortunately for Ingram, they didn’t get much help on the offensive side of the ball as South Carolina suffered their first loss of the season.
• SMU defeated TCU 40-33 to snap the Horned Frogs’ 22-game home winning streak. June Jones led the Mustangs (4-1) to only their second victory over a ranked opponent since their resurrection from the “death penalty.” J.J. McDermott led the SMU pass-happy offense to the tune of 23/45 for 349 yards 4 TD 1INT to go along with 120 yards rushing from running back Zach Line. SMU has a bye week before they continue their Conference USA schedule with a home came against UCF.
• Andrew Luck is special. We have too many draft “experts” yelling at the top of their lungs about the kid for us to not know his ability. There was a lot of doubters who said Stanford and Luck would take a step back after the departure of Jim Harbaugh to the NFL but Luck and his Cardinal teammates are proving all the doubters wrong. They are impressive on offense with the mix of run/pass and their defense is one of the best in the nation. They’re also the most underrated.

Turnovers

• The Barrett Trotter/Stephen Garcia quarterback battle royale had to set quarterbacks back at least 10 years. What an awful display of football. They combined for less than 300 yards passing while each finished with 2 interceptions a piece. Trotter was an impressive 12/23 for 112 yards when compared to Garcia’s awful 9/23 outing. Garcia was able to muster up 160 yards but 50 of them came on an impressive touchdown grab by Alshon Jeffrey
• I have a soft spot in my heart for teams that run the option. So you can imagine how excited I was while watching Air Force battle Navy. Air Force got out to an impressive 18-point lead before Navy battled back to tie the game on a touchdown and two point conversion with less than 20 seconds remaining in regulation. Unfortunately, the game ended on a sour note for Navy as quarterback Kriss Proctor was called for unsportsmanlike conduct after getting in the face of an Air Force player after scoring the go-ahead touchdown in overtime. The rest is history: Air Force blocks Navy’s ensuing extra point, Air Force scores a touchdown on their overtime possession, Air Force kicks the extra point for the 1 point win.
• Mike Sherman. Epic fail. As if blowing a 17-point halftime lead in last week’s 30-29 loss to Oklahoma State wasn’t bad enough, Texas A&M one-upped last week’s effort by giving up an 18-point halftime lead in an eventual 42-38 loss to Arkansas.

YTD: 30-23-1 (56.7%)

The best – and worst – part about gambling every week is taking a look back at your previous card. It’s great because if you’re right, you get to relish in the fact that you were smarter than Vegas…at least for one day. It’s a fleeting feeling because that’s the nature of gambling. But when you bomb – like I did last week – reviewing your decisions is enough to drive you insane. I find that I still have to do it, no matter how much money I lost, because I like to learn from my mistakes. More importantly, I have to figure out if I made the wrong call or if I just got the middle finger from fate.

As Fred Jung said in Blow:

“Sometimes you’re flush and sometimes you’re bust, and when you’re up, it’s never as good as it seems, and when you’re down, you never think you’ll be up again, but life goes on.”

Frankly, about half the games I make plays on come down to the wire, and I have to be incredibly lucky to hit over 50 percent…much less 60, which is ideal. With that in mind, I went ahead and took a look back at why I played the major-money games that I did last week, and if I would’ve done anything differently. For your consideration.

Texas Tech -15 vs. Nevada – Bad call. Nevada can obviously move the ball, and Tech is still going through a huge transition period defensively with the 4-2-5. I put too much stock in the New Mexico game and got burned for it. The lesson: Always recognize an inflated scoreline against a crappy team.

Maryland -9 vs. Temple – Bad call. Frankly, Maryland hasn’t looked great in any game this season. The first half against Miami was impressive…and then the Hurricanes nearly came back. MD got destroyed in the first half against West Virignia and Temple humiliated them for all 60 minutes. This play was against Temple more than it was on Maryland, but I was only reading one half of the story here. The lesson: Make sure the team you’re betting on is reliable.

East Carolina -13 vs UAB – Bad luck. I just don’t know how else you can explain a team gaining nearly 550 yards, outgaining its opponent by 140+ yards, and only winning by 5 points. ECU could’ve very easily lost this game straight up, and it was due strictly to SEVEN turnovers, four of which happened inside either 20 yard line. I haven’t seen a team give away a game like that in recent memory. ECU did have turnover problems against South Carolina, but it’s tough to predict a team fumbling that often again, especially since they didn’t lose one against Virginia Tech. The lesson: It’s best to move on from games like these. Nothing to learn from a team that gave the ball away like its life depended on it.

Clemson -2.5 vs Florida State – Good call, if not an incredibly easy one. The Tigers did their best to try and give the game away; it’s saying something that Tajh Boyd’s fart-and-fall-down interception/fumble was only the third-most ridiculous turnover by a team I backed last week. But Clemson should be favored by at least a field goal on a neutral field. The fact that you got so much value at home made it a no-brainer.

The point of this exercise: sometimes you lose a bet in which you still made the right call. The breaks don’t always go your way. Continue to ride out the bad luck and hope things turn. If you blame every loss on the refs, you’re making bad calls. If you understand why you put the money down and that you still read the game correctly but had everything go against you, keep doing what you’re doing.

So here’s this week’s card, with the hopes that I can’t get shit on as badly as I did last week. Still cleaning the diarrhea out of my ears from that poop fest.

4*

Alabama -3.5 – If I ever advise you not to follow me, this would probably be the game. For one, you could lose on the hook if Alabama edges Florida by a field goal. For two, I’ve already bet against the Gators twice and lost both times. And lastly, it’s easy to put money on your own team and more often than not, you end up being wrong. But I’m not impressed with Florida’s offense. If you want to beat Bama, you have to throw the ball downfield. I’m not convinced that John Brantley and this largely unproven group of receivers can do that often enough.

Auburn +10 – A clear revenge game for South Carolina, but the offense has been so putrid that I can’t imagine the Gamecocks beat Auburn by double-digits. The only thing that would kill Aubie here is turnovers, and the Cocks do force those in droves. I think AU will hold onto the ball and be able to get up and down the field. Michael Dyer will need to come up huge.

ECU +7 – The Pirates murdered me last week, but I’m going back to the well again. They’re much more familiar with the underdog role, and Bryn Renner has been an INT-tossing machine since his brilliant opening week performance against FCS James Madison. Like the Pirates to win straight-up here.

Virginia Tech -7 – Clemson’s first game away from home against the best defense they’ll face all year. David Wilson will throw his hat into the Heisman race in this game. Haven’t been impressed with Clemson’s defense at all. Wilson has been electric; 130+ yards in three of four games.

Rutgers +1.5 – Taking the better team with the points on the road. Cuse shouldn’t have beaten Toledo last week but got a terrible call upheld on an extra point. Rutgers isn’t impressive by any means, but they showed some moxie in going blow-for-blow with UNC. Defense has already forced 13 turnovers this season. Let’s hope that continues this week.

3*

Georgia Tech -10 – Sucker bet of the week that I can’t find a reason to lay off of. NC State is down to bare bones on the interior DL. You gotta have athleticism up front on D to stop the Jackets, and the Wolfpack just ain’t got it. GT’s defense will give up some points, but the offense should keep rolling.

Purdue +11.5 – Notre Dame a double-digit favorite on the road? LOL

Iowa State +9.5 – Texas might kill me again on the half-point, but I am going with my gut here. Biggest home game for Iowa State in at least a decade. Crowd will be rocking and Texas is still an extremely young team that hasn’t played in a hostile environment yet.

2*

Toledo +8 – Fading Temple one more time as they have to be emotionally higher than any program in the country after raw-dogging Maryland. Toledo can play. Even if they choke the game away again, that’s still plenty of points to cover.

Tulsa -22.5 – Fading North Texas, one of the worst teams in FBS. G.J. Kinne is back for Tulsa, and the offense shouldn’t have too much trouble scoring. May start slowly, but the Hurricane will pour it on in the second half after facing the roughest September schedule in the country.

Navy -3.5 – Air Force going to the east coast and playing a stout Navy team…I like my odds with the Middies. Both teams know each other well, and both have great coaches. But I think AF’s lack of a tough schedule will actually hurt it in this instance.

1*

Texas A&M -2.5 – Just taking the better team. Arkansas is totally different without Knile Davis in the lineup. Think TAMU bounces back here.

Kentucky +30.5 – Too many points, especially for an LSU team playing at noon and facing Florida on deck. Yes Kentucky sucks, but LSU’s offense doesn’t scare me all that much. I will take a 4+ touchdown cushion.

Utah -7 – This line is up to 10 now, which is a little silly. But I think Utah will finally get on track against the Huskies’ semi-soft defense. Ground attack needs to be the focus here for the Utes. They force plenty of turnovers, which is good. Hope that continues on Saturday.

Logan Thomas – There was a lot of hype for Logan Thomas going into the season. Virginia Tech had changed the playcaller for him, people were raving about his ability, and I believe there were some voices that proclaimed Virginia Tech would not miss Tyrod Taylor this year. Well, after 4 games against mediocre opponents, Logan Thomas is ranked 80th in the country in passing efficiency, and 60th in total offense. Not exactly a upgrade from Tyrod Taylor. Even more worrying is that Virginia Tech had scored more than 30 points against a Division 1-A opponent (and that opponent was Marshall). Clemson’s offense looks scary good right now, and the onus is on Logan Thomas to live up to his potential. Clint Trickett, a backup QB, had a good game against Clemson, so if Virginia Tech has any shot at winning this game, Logan Thomas will have to produce a good performance.

Florida’s Offense – Florida has been able to win all of its games at a cantor so far, and their offense has looked pretty good doing it. However, playing at Alabama is a huge test for this offense. This will be the first defense that has speed that can come close to Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps. The bad news for this offense is that the only other defense that came close to matching the speed of those guys held them to under 350 yards of offense. Granted, Florida’s defense more than made up for their offense on that day, it’s going to be much tougher sledding against Alabama. Charlie Weis was brought in to revive the offense, and this is his first big test of the year. Personally, I am not sold on Florida’s offense yet, so this is their chance to put up TDs or GTFO.

Nebraska – Nebraska was widely considered a favorite for the Big Ten title before the season started (and they were the favorite after shit hit the fan in Columbus and before Russell Wilson transfered to Wisconsin). But they have had some very mediocre performances so far this season, and their defense looks nothing like the Nebraska defenses of the past couple of years. That is not a good formula going into Wisconsin. Nebraska has to prove they can stop an offense like Wisconsin’s before they can be considered an elite team in the Big Ten. And, on the other side of the ball, Taylor Martinez still needs to show that he can pass the ball. He’s completing 51% of his passes so far this season, which is frankly an atrocious number considering the competition they’ve played. Nebraska’s offense also needs to have another playmaker emerge. Rex Burkhead and Taylor Martinez combine to average 372 yards per game, and Nebraska averages 439 total yards per game on offense. If Wisconsin can take either one of those players out of the game, then they will romp. It will be up to Nebraska’s offense to show some new wrinkles, find a new playmaker, and be much better throwing the ball (they are 106th in passing offense and 78th in passing efficiency). No matter the result, Nebraska will probably still be the favorite in their division, but if their offense struggles against Wisconsin, that is not good news for the rest of the season.

Texas A&M – There are some announcers that make up words like “bouncebackability” to say what mental attributes a team needs to be successful. This unfortunate word describes what Texas A&M needs this week when facing Arkansas. Texas A&M was up 20-3 at halftime, but Oklahoma State scored 21 points in the 3rd quarter and never looked back en route to a 30-29 victory. Texas A&M showed some signs of life in the 4 quarter, but ended up turning the ball over on the potential game winning drive. Texas A&M had 7 drives in the second half: they turned the ball over 4 times, punted twice, and scored one TD. Their offense needs to drastically improve against Arkansas. But the mental factor is going to be huge for A&M this week. Can they put the mental disappointment of losing a 17 point lead, then having a chance to win the game but still losing behind them? A&M looked like a fragile team last week, so I’m not so sure. But their offense has to get better, and Ryan Tannehill cannot throw 3 INTs. Their defense cannot let Arkansas complete 47 passes, either. This is a big game for A&M, and their season is probably hanging in the balance.

Illinois – Illinois has, for the most part, been flying under the radar. They are ranked in the bottom of the top 25, but had a real scare against Western Michigan last week. Scheelhaase looks like a decent dual threat QB, but their RB corps is struggling to replace Mikel Leshoure. The reason that they are on here is that they should be on upset alert against Northwestern this week. Dan Persa is likely to return for Northwestern, which is a huge boost to that team. Illinois’ defense has been really solid so far this year, but this is a big test for them. Illinois might overlook this game, and they do so at their peril. Northwestern needs a victory really bad, especially after losing to Army. They are going to be desperate, and Illinois is vulnerable. I don’t know what it is, but I get the feeling that Illinois could have a Ron Zook episode at any moment. Northwestern is the perfect game for that.